Written by Yusuf
Nasir Ahmad.
28 April, 2023.
The War in Sudan: Who, Why, Where,
When and What.
In
this article, you will learn who are those fighting in Sudan? Why are they
fighting? Where is fighting taking place? When did fighting starts? What are
they really fighting over and what are other countries and the international
organizations doing about it?
Sudan
is a country located in the North-East of Africa with a land size of 728, 215 SQ
Miles. Its estimated population, according to UN, stands at 45.7 million
people. It has a real GDP of $207.7 billion USD. Its significant source of
government revenue is oil, gold other mineral resources. It has a per capita
income of $4, 450.
It
is important to mention that Sudan and Southern Sudan of today used to be Republic
of Sudan since its independence on January 1st 1956. However,
a civil war that lasted for over twenty years broke-out between Sudan and
Southern Sudan. Major reasons for this civil war were: Religious difference;
ethnicity; economics and political interests. It was devastating: Two million
people were estimated to have died and millions were estimated to have been dismissed.
The
Northern Sudan, which happens to be Sudan of today is under the control of Arab
Muslims, while the Southern Sudan is under the control of Sudan People’s
Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). Arab Muslims
in Sudan account for approximately 90% of the population, while Christians
approximately account for 6% and traditional worshiper account for the remaining
3% respectively.
A
truce was signed with the help of the United States, The United Nations and
African Union in 2005 between the Sudanese government and the SPLM/A. Since the
US funded 22% of the entire $5.4 billion UN annual budget, the US earned itself
a seat at the peace brokers’ table.
What is Currently Happening In
Sudan?
The
current crisis in Sudan is a not between Sudan and Southern Sudan. Rather, it
is a crisis that broke out two army generals in the country, particularly in
Khartoum which later escalated to various regions of the country. The two
parties involved in this conflict are: General Abdel Fattah Al Burha who is on
the right side, known as the Defacto Ruler and otherwise known as the President
of the country and the leader of the Sudanese Armed Force (SAF).
On
the other polar extreme, you have General Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo who happens to
be the leader of the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and also the known as the Vice
President. In other words, the President and Vice President of Sudan are at war
against each other.
However,
let us get some background story as to why these two elephants are fighting.
Recall that Gen. Omar Al Bashir was the President of Sudan from 1989 – 2019
when he was toppled by the duos who are fighting today. Both Gen Burha and Gen
Dagalo created the Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC) as an accord too
transfer back power back to a civilian government in November 2021 with Gen
Burha as the Chairman and Gen Dagalo as the Vice Chairman of the Council.
Both
General Abdel Fattah Burha and General Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo conspired and
betrayed the trust of Omar Al Bashir who plotted a coup against the civilian
government in 1981.
On
October 2021, the two army generals decided to completely eliminate the civil
political group that are part of the TSC accord that promised to return power
to civilian government.
The
October 2021 military junta coup was a direct breech and violation that the TSC
would only last 3 years and 3 months, i.e, 39 months. In this said period, the
military junta were to only reign for 21 months while the civilians would rule
for the remaining 18 months.
In
other words, 21 months on the military dictatorship will end on November 2021.
However, before the stipulated transition time, both Gen Abdel Fattah Burha and
General Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo decided to arrest and detained all the civilians
and hijacked the government from them in October 2021.
We
have seen so far, the duos have always collaborated and team up in their
respective best interests. First, they team up and overthrew President Omar Al
Bashir in 2019 even though he appointed them. Again they team up and arrest all
the civilians in power and hijacked the government from the people. So one may
ask, why then are the two elephants battling for power today?
After
the coup in 2021, Gen Abdel Fattah Burha initiated a process to re-instate the
politicians and members loyal to the former President Omar Al Bashir. Given
that Gen Dagalo betrayed them, this moved really makes Gen. Dagalo suspicious
of Gen. Burha knowing fully that party loyal to the former President whom they
toppled will never trust him again.
Another
significant factor is that inspire the whole drama is the influence of the
elite ethnicity that have been dominant in the politics of the country. General
Dagalo came from Darfur, West of Sudan which happens to be a rural area. This
subjected General Dagalo to ridicule and labelled unfit and incompetent to rule
Sudan.
Since
General Dagalo felt outshined by his friends, and his sense of pride had been
abused, he decided to change his strategy and teach them a lesson instead. General
Dagalo positioned himself to the general public of Sudan and especially the
people of Darfur as the man of the people. He claimed he was fighting for the
marginalized people of Sudan.
Given
that he knew the in and out of Darfur very well when he was conducting and
counter-terrorism operation against Darfur Rebels back in 2003, he formed
alliances with the rebel groups. At least, the enemy of enemy is my friend
until he comes my enemy again.
This
now led to the main fight between RSF, led by General Muhmmad Hamdan Dagalo and
SAF, led by General Abdell Fattah Burha. These two generals are now battling
for supremacy in Sudan in a fight that has lasted more than 14 days today.
According
to a report by REUTERS, Gen. Dagalo made fortune from exporting gold, mining
and the transportation sector. Therefore, he has enough resources at his
disposal plus the alleged support he is getting from Russia.
It
is worth stating that, what further exacerbated the conflict is a bill that was
proposed to relegate the RSF and place it under the control of the SAF. In
fact, some reports have it that Gen Burha has currently proscribe the RSF and
declared them as rebel groups. This is the main trigger of the conflict.
So What Are Other Countries Doing
About The War in Sudan?
The
United States, United Kingdom and European Union have all unanimously condemned
the conflict and calling parties involved to embrace peace and a ceasefire.
The
UN Security Council voted to renew sanctions on the regime. This will be the
latest sanctions that hits the country since 2005. However, countries likes
Russia and China have different motives as they both abstained from the vote at
the UN Security Council.
There
certain reports that alleged the presence of Russian mercenaries providing
support for General Dagalo in exchange for gold. However, given the conflict in
Ukraine, Western media could say anything just to discredit Russia.
However,
Russia’s possible interest in Sudan could be to establish a Naval Base in the
Red Sea on the Sudanese coast line. This move will enable Russia have access to
the Indian Ocean from the black sea to Suez Canal and back to the base at
Sudanese coast line and back to Indian Ocean.
UAE
Saudi Arabiya also enjoy a long lasting relationship with General Dagalo given
that they both shared interests and fighting on the same sides in Yemen.
In
conclusion, it is important to note that Africa possesses abundant natural
resources such as oil, gold, gas and other mineral resources. The methods
deployed by the imperial powers is to get involved in these countries are of
course different.
Western
countries often hide under the banner of promoting democracy, freedom of
speech, human rights and gender equality to intervene in the politics and
economics of third world countries. While Russia and China deploy the use of
infrastructure investment to intervene.
Finally,
just because the US is currently silent about the conflict does not mean that
they will be silent forever. Sounds like they are currently evaluating their
options and strategies. Given the significant role the US plays at the UN, any sustainable
truce or ceasefire between the two elephants must include the US government
indeed. It was the US government who sealed the truce in Sudan back in 2005. It
was the US government who gave freedom to South Sudan back in 2011. Thus, their
role in reaching a ceasefire can never be overemphasized.
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